EAST LANSING, Mich. — It’s a weird time for Mark Dantonio and Michigan State football.
In a few areas.
Presently, MSU finds itself smack in the middle of some awkward scheduling quirk that features two off weeks sandwiched around a pretty notable home game against unbeaten Penn State. It’ll be MSU’s first game at Spartan Stadium in about a month. And at 4-3 with back-to-back blowout Big Ten losses already on the books, Saturday feels like an opportunity to prove that there’s still a flicker or two of light shining inside the 2019 tunnel.
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“It is a little bit different, but I’ve always just tried to embrace the situation that we’re in,” Dantonio said Tuesday. “We’ve got to figure it out and reset and move forward. And I think we’re capable of that.”
Dantonio spent most of Tuesday, his first meeting with members of the media since his tension-filled address that followed an embarrassment at Wisconsin two weeks ago, pointing toward the work in front of his team. In a current sense, that’s all that matters.
But then we get to the second installment of the weird spot here.
Michigan State’s last two games featured a combined score of Other Team 72, Spartans 10. MSU saw three more players enter the transfer portal last week, bringing the in-season total up to six. As is often the case in these matters, playing time appeared to be at least part of the motivation for running backs Connor Heyward and La’Darius Jefferson, wide receiver Weston Bridges and tight end Noah Davis. Linebacker Brandon Bouyer-Randle could’ve been looking at more snaps next season, but he’ll depart as a graduate transfer. Wide receiver Cam Chambers has been in law school this yearbut made it clear he’s been doing what he can to get on the field. In any event, he’s also on the search for a new program.
Transfers happen. Dantonio referred to this situation as “the new norm.” He’s not wrong. But six in the middle of the season, before the end of October, qualifies as a lot. Dantonio said, upon a check Tuesday morning, that more than 340 players were in the portal nationwide. But, also as of Tuesday, no one in the Big Ten had more players in there than Michigan State. The next closest would be Maryland and Michigan, who both had three.
Dantonio also had a recent outburst over a question about his decision to retain a coaching staff that’s 15-16 over the past four seasons. Add all this up, and it’s fair to ask whether MSU’s coach took any time during last week’s bye to address his football team in an attempt to stabilize a situation that appears dangerously close to rattling off the tracks.
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“No,” he said Tuesday. “I keep marching forward.”
Fair enough. But what does that mean, exactly?
Where is this thing going?
Michigan State’s message after its road loss to Ohio State, easily the league’s best team, clung to optimism. The Spartans hung with OSU in the first quarter, but were eventually blitzed off the field in the second stanza and then spent most of the second half trying to keep the score from getting too embarrassing.
MSU wasn’t close that day. Still, quarterback Brian Lewerke did engineer some productive drives. The defensive front bothered Justin Fields for a bit before falling off. You had to squint, but there were a few bright spots.
Then, Wisconsin.
One first down on 18 first-half snaps. Nothing, absolutely nothing, worked. Not that MSU got very creative in an attempt to solve one of the country’s toughest defensive forces.
That’s the first offensive snap of the game. A seven-man split-zone run scheme into an eight-man Wisconsin box, with an extra safety hovering because the formation from 12 personnel is pretty tightly wound. A play like this — something we continue to see from this offense — is destined to fail due to basic math. It doesn’t matter, though, as a Wisconsin linebacker blows up an obvious run gap basically at the snap of the ball. This is predictable and it never has a chance.
This offense has no chance in second-and-long, so it’s no surprise this series was a three-and-out. The next drive started with something more creative, as Lewerke executed a run-pass option read and delivered a ball into the hands of Darrell Stewart near the first-down marker. But the pass was dropped. MSU managed to get a third-and-5 from there, but Lewerke airmailed a possible conversion — leading to another punt.
After that, it was a pair of split-zone quarterback keeps and a low throw before a punt. MSU managed one first down on its third possession before falling right back into misery. The fourth series included a speed option play-action shot play that was overthrown. Then an inside zone play into even numbers for a minimal gain. Then a 4-yard throw on third-and-8 that wasn’t completed.
On and on it went. Right up through a third-and-1 with less than a minute to go in the half, when Dantonio and his offensive coordinator went with another head-scratcher.
Count them up. That’s eight against nine, with a floating safety to make it 10. Every gap, plus one, is accounted for here. Michigan State hasn’t proven an ability to move the line of scrimmage against an opponent like this. This is destined to fail from the start.
What, exactly, is the plan here?
Michigan State’s defense actually did a nice job of limiting Jonathan Taylor to just 3.1 yards per carry. But when you’re forced to be on the field for 40 minutes against Wisconsin, you’re going to get ground into meat one way or another. This is not winning football. This is, once again, football played the hard way with a roster that isn’t capable of doing it.
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So, again, what’s the plan? What’s the road ahead?
Through seven games, MSU ranks 11th in the Big Ten in total offense and yards per play. The offense is No. 72 nationally in overall S&P efficiency. The defense is hanging in at No. 11. But this is a familiar tale.
The Spartans have enough firepower defensively to bother Penn State on Saturday in East Lansing, make no mistake about that. But what happens on the other side of the ball, as Penn State’s defense enters the game No. 12 overall in national efficiency? Same question, different game.
Michigan State’s style of football isn’t working against the top teams in the Big Ten right now. It didn’t work last year. It didn’t work in 2016. In 2017, MSU recorded 10 wins — five of those were one-score games. Wins all the same, but another highlight in how difficult this style can be. The margin for error when you play like this is razor-thin. It only widens out when your roster is stocked with NFL talent. I’m not sure MSU can claim that right now. So, again: What’s the plan here?
Michigan State is 4-3. Glass half-full, the toughest games might have already happened. Beat Penn State at home and Michigan on the road next month and things look more cheery. But slip further and find yourself in another lame bowl game and then what?
MSU’s defense starts seven seniors, including three along the defensive front. They’re all gone next year. The Spartans are going to have to start over at quarterback next year, too. Elijah Collins looks like a bright spot as a redshirt freshman running back, but the offensive line — which isn’t exactly young with three juniors and a senior starting — has struggled. Cody White’s only a junior, Jalen Nailor will get healthy soon. But, again: Who plays quarterback? Where does this offense go? Will it look the same again? Michigan State’s 2020 recruiting class features 15 public commitments (none from a quarterback) and, per 247Sports’ composite, is ranked No. 46 nationally, 11th in the Big Ten.
There’s also the matter of depth. Plenty have cited the devastation of Michigan State’s once-touted 2016 recruiting class as a reason for the current struggles. It’s a class that suffered some standard college football attrition, but also one that lost four players due to charges relating to sex crimes.
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“The only thing that I can say is, you know, you need to push forward,” Dantonio said Tuesday when asked about the 2016 class and its impact on the state of the program.
On Tuesday, Dantonio spent most of his time discussing the future.
But right now, it’s really difficult to understand the plan moving forward.
(Photo: Jeff Hanisch/USA Today)
Nick Baumgardner is a senior writer/NFL Draft analyst based in Michigan. He co-hosts “One of These Years," a Detroit Lions podcast with Colton Pouncy. He joined The Athletic after stops at the Detroit Free Press, MLive Media Group and other newspapers in Michigan, Indiana and Kentucky. Follow Nick on Twitter @nickbaumgardner
